Understanding flood dangers
08-06-2025
The recent events in Texas remind us how crucial it is to understand and respond to natural hazards like floods. Here in Hennepin County, we want to ensure everyone is informed and prepared.
Understanding Weather Forecasts
Most weather forecasts you see are based on what is most likely to happen. Forecasters aim to be accurate, so they usually present the most probable scenario. However, there are also "worst case" and "best case" scenarios that are less likely but still possible.
Many forecasts use multiple models to predict the weather. The average of these models is shown as the most likely outcome. The extreme predictions, both high and low, are less often discussed but are important for full preparedness.
Pre-storm forecast assessments include not only the most likely scenario, but also the worst-case and best-case potentials. Emergency Management encourages you to also consider the range of possibilities when dangerous storms are forecasted. Take note that most forecasts usually include a mention of the high-impact, but low-likelihood potential of tornadoes, extreme winds, hail and flooding. It is important to understand these potentials. Do not think that the forecast was faulty because the hazards did not happen. Usually, high-end storm hazards do not happen. Instead, most storms deliver as expected. In some case, storms underperform. But rarely, some storms will over-perform in a big way. These are the ones that produce loss and tragedy.
Learning to understand the range of possibilities provided by weather forecasts instead of seeing them through a ‘good forecast – bad forecast’ lens is important to understanding storm risks to keep you and your loved ones safe.
Flood risks in Hennepin County
Flooding is a significant risk in our county. You don't need to live next to a creek or river to experience flooding. In urban settings, low spots that collect water are everywhere, and we have experienced extensive property damage from past floods, even those outside of designated flood plains. It's important to be aware of flood risks and take them seriously.
Hennepin County's approach
Hennepin County Emergency Management is committed to keeping our community safe. Accurate forecasts, alerts and watches make the chances of being taken by surprise by a weather warning relatively low for those who maintain reasonable awareness. Hennepin County Emergency Management has meteorologists that provide emergency responders county-wide with detailed and accurate information about the potential for high-end disaster events for each hazardous storm. Such pre-storm assessments reduce the chances of emergency responders being surprised by dangerous conditions like those which struck Texas recently. These preparatory actions before storms take place make communities safer.
How you can stay prepared
As summer storm season blends into winter storm season, please give a moment daily to check out the forecast. If forecasts mention heavy weather, pay attention to both the most likely and worst-case scenarios. While extreme cases are rare, weather systems are driven by highly complex factors that can result in a wide range of weather outcomes. You assume that the weather will be fairly close to what's forecast as the most likely scenario but understanding how bad a storm could get is also important to know.
Once storms are formed, you should stay tuned into local sources to understand if they are progressing as expected or they are behaving differently. People who are ready in this way are not surprised by storm warnings and instead can immediately take safety actions. Reference the resources below and become familiar with severe weather preparedness to best protect yourself and those around you.
Stay connected in a crisis with FEMA's Integrated Public Alert and Warning System.
Prepare emergency kits for your home, workplace, and car in case of a crisis.
Become familiar with FEMA's Guide for Alerts and Warnings.
Hennepin County Emergency Management is prepared and committed to keeping our community safe. Stay informed, stay prepared, and work together to reduce the impact of natural hazards.